In contrarian betting, we are always looking for places where the collective rush to judgement is wrong. Just as every Gen X sports fan remembers Howie Meeker exhorting us to play the puck and not the man, we don’t play against the house but the general public.
Recency bias is a promising area for the contrarian better. The public often puts too much emphasis on last week’s games, especially blowouts. Blowouts are often less instructive than we think. Pro sports place the very top of the best 1% of athletes against each other, and very small variances are magnified. In NFL world, the best quarterback in the world taking on the 55th best is a big margin. If Patrick Mahimes and Blake Bortles showed up to your beer league game, they’d both look equally amazing. The NFL a turns on very small differences, and a blowout often just means there was a small, transient advantage that one team exploited in a one-game sample size.
The result is that the public often thinks that last week matters more than it does. Example? If you replayed the Super Bowl match a week later, I guarantee you Tampa would draw way more action than they did the first time. Yet that blowout probably didn’t tell us much except that Kansas City had an awful day. A small but persistent advantage is more likely a signal than a 30-point blowout, because no NFL team is really 30 points better than another.
So Week 2 is usually a game of looking for lines that suggest that the public has overreacted to a one-game sample and the house is giving extra points to balance out the action. Betting against irrational exuberance is our goal. That also means deciding what we thing was an illusion, and what might be real. Here’s my list….
ILLUSIONS:
The PACKERS might be forever damaged by Aaron Rodgers’ off-season pouting, but I doubt it. His track record of responding when doubted is pretty good. The BILLS just got caught by a sudden flurry of good plays but will regroup. I’d like to see Jalen Hurts lead the EAGLES to a win over a quality opponent before I get out the anointing oil, just as I think Mac Jones is getting a bit too much love for leading the PATRIOTS to a loss. Every rookie gets intense film room scrutiny and quickly plays opponents who start by taking away what you love to do. The GIANTS had weird off-season injuries on the offensive side and probably won’t be discombobulated for all 17 games like they were agains5 Denver.
REALITIES: I don’t believe in big swings of opinion based on one game, but sometimes good games can confirm more modest conclusions. The SAINTS aren’t going to beat everyone 38-3, but Sean Payton can coach quarterbacks and they now have a good one in Winston. The STEELERS weren’t as bad as their late collapse. Sometimes teams don’t need big free agents signings when young players just improve over the off-season, and that’s why I think the CARDINALS are likely pretty good. And the NINERS let the Lions off the mat, but the first half that put them on the canvas looked like the 2019 formula again. The Vikings losing looked a lot like how they lost last year, and that’s bad.
OK, on with the picks
PREFERRED PICKS (I will play these)
JETS +6 over Patriots
The line moved hard from 3.5 to 6, and the public is over 70% on New England. These teams have public brands based on years of excellence (Pats) and futility (Jets), and so I suspect this line is inflated a bit. Pats still win, but I like a low-scoring cover.
RAVENS +3.5 over Chiefs
Oh, this is hard. The public was over 90% on the Chiefs when this opened and is still over 70% on them. But that one-point line move seemed to move some sharp money, and the house left it alone. This is one where I am playing the line and not my instincts, because I FEEL like the public does. But the house is usually right when they let the public stay on one side.
GIANTS +3.5 over Washington FT
As soon as the line gave me the hook at 3.5 I liked this one. Giants are underestimated and these division rivalries often stay close. I even played the old-dangled Pro-Line “tie” where you bet the game stays within 3. If you look, that’s often overvalued relative to the percentage of games that stay within a field goal, and it can be a sneaky good bet even if it is a quirky relic of when ProLine wasn’t a real betting service.
BRONCOS -6 over Jaguars
I was wrong on the Broncos last week, and my buddy Tony quickly pointed out that I left an easy cover on the field. I’m fading the Jags because, like last week, I don’t think the public has caught up to how bad they really are. Teddy Bridgewater isn’t exciting to bet on but, like Tyrod Taylor, he does little things well and avoids mistakes. Lay it.
CARDINALS -4 over Vikings
Yes, the hook scares me. So does the Vikings D and dispirited play under Mike Zimmer, who is showing signs of late-stage dismisslitis, where a coach loses his team and gets fired. I think the public undervalued the Cards because they are the perceived 4th team in a strong division, and I’m going to be on them early.
COWBOYS +3 over Chargers
I just think the wrong team is favoured and, in a stadium where there will probably be more Cowboys fans than Chargers (dumb move out of San Diego, Mr. Spanos) I think there’s a cover here for the Dallas Daks.
MODERATE PICKS — I may play a unit if the line do-operates)
PANTHERS +3.5 over Saints
The public already jumped this line and moved it down, and I suspect the illusion of last week is more how bad the Pack was, so I may pass. But Carolina has weapons and they will make this a game. If you can get a +4 take it.
COLTS +4 over Rams
Another one where I’m uneasy, because Wentz does NOT look like Matt Stanford. But the Rams are coming off a blowout win AND have a big game with the Bucs on deck, so this is a classic look-ahead spot. The house thinks so too, because it isn’t really moving the line hard enough to overcome the public’s support of the Rams. So I may trust the house and not my eyes.
STEELERS -5.5 over Raiders
The Raiders are on a short week off an emotional win. They get a public lean by playing in Vegas. The Steelers D looks good. It his is a big number for a Steelers offence that still lacks an identity, but the fundamentals are strong here.
NINERS -3 over Eagles
San Francisco is good, and I think the late inattention to Detroit is the fluke, and the Eagles blowout may be a function of the Falcons’ decline accelerating over the off-season. If you can get this at -3, do it.
TOSS-UPS (I will make a pick, but likely pass on playing them)
BILLS -3.5 over Dolphins
The Fish have a good defence, a history of covering against Buffalo, and it’s a division game, so the hook scares me off. But I do think the Bills will bounce back.
TITANS +6 over Seahawks
I think the Titans will get unjustly faded based on last week, but on the road against Seattle is a hard place to test that theory.
TEXANS +13.5 over Browns
This line is almost playable, and at 14 I’d jump. I don’t know that the Browns deserve a 2TD spread against the Texans, who are more steady-and-mediocre than truly terrible. Browns win, sure, but it’s easy to see a back door cover.
PACKERS -11.5 over Lions
I think they respond. If you don’t, the Lions +425 on the money line is actually good value for that contingency, which I think is unlikely but not AS unlikely as the house does.
BUCCANEERS-13.5 over Atlanta
The Falcons played Tampa tough last year, covering easily twice, so I can’t play the line this high and I can’t trust the Falcons. So I’m passing.
BENGALS +2 over Bears
I really don’t want to touch this because the Bears could make a QB switch any time. I think Joe Burrow is for real, and the Bengals brand compensates for the public fading the Bears off a bad prime-time loss. But really, I don’t have a handle on either team yet.
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