Spread & Circuses

 PREMIUM PICKS COLTS +2.5 over Buccaneers The Colts had 4th quarter leads over Tennessee and Baltimore that they let slip away at the end.  Change those two outcomes, and Indy would be the Top AFC seed and on a 6 game win streak. They shouldn’t be getting points, even against a quality opponent.  TEXANS -2.5 over Jets The Jets often bite when they’re written off, but I do like the veteran QB over the rusty rookie here at under 3. Lay it.  WASHINGTON -1 over Seahawks This requires one to believe that two trends — Ron Riveira’s post-bye improvement and Seattle’s offensive collapse — are real. This week, I do. BILLS -5 over Saints The trend I don’t buy is Buffalo collapsing. Trevor Simian has done well enough in garbage time to keep this line under 7, and that’s where I think it’s a bargain PANTHERS -1 over Dolphins Can Newton seems to have improved the feeling in Charlotte, and I don’t think Miami’s check down passing and lack of a run game can keep up with a Panthers ...

 PREMIUM PICKS SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Cards The need factor should be enough to cover this against a backup QB. Cards will give Kyler Murray the bye week. WASHINGTON +3.5 over Panthers I like the hook.  Everyone is excited by Cam Newton’s return, but I don’t see him being a huge upgrade at this point.  LIONS +13 over Browns We gained a few points when Jared Goff was announced out, but he hasn’t played well.  The Lions have quietly paid spread bettors well, going 4-1 ATS last 5 COWBOYS +2.5 over Chiefs One week hasn’t sold me on the Chiefs giving points to a premium opponent. COLTS +7.5 over Bills That hook is too much given the trends for these teams. TEXANS +10.5 over Titans Tyrod Taylor can keep it close in what may be a let-up game for Tennessee MIDDLING PICKS PACKERS -1 over Vikings This road trip is usually a trap for good Packer teams, but it hasn’t been for Matt Lafleur, so let’s ride the Packers’ cover streak. DOLPHINS -3.5 over Jets I don’t like the hook, but I ...

 Sorry…..limited time this week.  Here goes: PREMIUM PICKS  NINERS +3.5 over Rams This is the classic contrarian pick. I think this line seems like an easy Rams cover.  So do 98% of bettors, and Vegas didn’t change the line. So….play it like they know something. Two units on SF. Also…. PATS -1.5 over Browns BUCS -9.5 over Washington LIONS +8.5 over Steelers RAIDERS +2.5 over Chiefs COLTS -10.5 over Jags MIDDLING PICKS PANTHERS +10.5 over Cards BILLS -13.5 over Jets DOLPHINS +7.5 over Ravens (make sure you get the hook!) PACKERS -3.5 over Seahawks WILDASS GUESSES Broncos +10 over Cowboys SAINTS +3.5 over Titans CHARGERS -2.5 over Vikings FALCONS +9.5 over Cowboys Last week 7-7 Season 87-49 Return: 617%

 This week’s theme is clearly absences, and generally how teams respond to distractions. A few weeks ago, we saw the Raiders exceed expectations in dealing with the sudden defenestration of Jon Gruden.  This week, the Raiders have lost not only a starting receiver, but must deal with the emotional fallout of some incredibly tragic decisions he allegedly made that led to the loss of life.  Aaron Rodgers sudden interest in home pharmacy is going to be a story for a while yet, plus they deal with Jordan Love’s unveiling this week.  And lesser controversies and distractions abound in Miami, Washington and Cleveland. How the public perceives these, and how the line moves, can create opportunity. We saw that last week, where the Packers and Cowboys both had injury troubles.  If you followed the public and jumped off those teams, you lost. If you played that the public overestimated the impact, you won.  (Full disclosure — I told you that the Pack and Raiders were...

 We are seeing more predictable lines now as teams begin to have an identity for the season.  The teams that were disappointing (hello, Miami!) are now seen as just bad, and surprising teams (hey, there, Arizona!) are accepted as just good. Now the challenge comes with watching lines respond to the unknowns -- the week-to-week injuries that bedevil fantasy players also make betting a challenge.  But they also present an opportunity -- the public can sometimes over-react to an injury and you can play the line in a contrarian way.  For example, the news headlines tell you that the Seahawks have lost two straight with Geno Smith starting for Russell Wilson, and the public sees those headlines and fades Seattle.  Gamblers tell you that Seattle is 2-0 ATS with Smith starting, because beating the spread is all about beating public expectations, not the other team. As we deal this week with a COVID outbreak in the Green Bay receivers' room, and key players with nagging...

 I hit my rough week last week with a 6-8 record. Fortunately I put my multiple unit bets on the Raiders and Seahawks, so my bankroll stayed solid with a 12 unit surplus.  This week there are a lot of games Vegas sees as a blowout. My pal Tony summed this dilemma up quite well once when we were looking at the horrible, Rich Kotite-coached Jets of the 90s getting 15 points against the Patriots. “Ugh,”proclaimed Tony, “I have two rules — the first is ‘Beware The Two Touchdown Spread”. When I asked what the second was, he replied “Beware the 0-11 Jets.” And he’s right. You want to avoid these games because they force you to choose between cartoonishly-huge deficits and teams so bad you wonder how they will keep up.  So many bettors pass or take the favourite out of name recognition.  But the contrarian knows that Tony’s first rule is a good one — dogs getting more than 2 TDs have covered more than 65%of the time since he spoke those words, even including the Texans gett...