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WEEK 12 NFL PICKS

 PREMIUM PICKS

COLTS +2.5 over Buccaneers

The Colts had 4th quarter leads over Tennessee and Baltimore that they let slip away at the end.  Change those two outcomes, and Indy would be the Top AFC seed and on a 6 game win streak. They shouldn’t be getting points, even against a quality opponent. 


TEXANS -2.5 over Jets

The Jets often bite when they’re written off, but I do like the veteran QB over the rusty rookie here at under 3. Lay it. 


WASHINGTON -1 over Seahawks

This requires one to believe that two trends — Ron Riveira’s post-bye improvement and Seattle’s offensive collapse — are real. This week, I do.


BILLS -5 over Saints

The trend I don’t buy is Buffalo collapsing. Trevor Simian has done well enough in garbage time to keep this line under 7, and that’s where I think it’s a bargain


PANTHERS -1 over Dolphins

Can Newton seems to have improved the feeling in Charlotte, and I don’t think Miami’s check down passing and lack of a run game can keep up with a Panthers team that has had one more week to integrate Cam and RunCMC


MIDDLING PICKS

VIKINGS -3 over Niners

I think the Niners are the better team, but Kyle Shanahan’s awful ATS record as a home favourite and Minnesota’s ability to keep everything close makes me take the points and bet on a close win. If the hook shows up Sunday, I’d hit this harder. 


BEARS -3.5 over Lions

Hate the hook but Detroit often follows a plucky close game with a meltdown. Andy Dalton should be able to do enough to win this in the 20-13 range. 


BRONCOS +2.5 over Chargers

The only things you can count on here….the Bolts are inconsistent and Denver is a bad place for a road team.  So let’s take the home dog and assume another regression to the mean for these two teams.


TITANS +7.5 over Patriots

Look, I see it too. The Pats are hot, the Titans hurt. But this line opened six points lower, and six points over the sharps’ first read is a lot. I waited and when it got to 7.5 I took the hook and bet against 72% of the public. 


STEELERS +4.5 over Bengals

This has Pro Line tie written all over it. Any line over 3 I will play in a divisional AFC North game.


BROWNS +5 over Ravens

Even this one. 


WILD ASS GUESSES

RAIDERS +7.5 over Cowboys

Another case where I waited for the hook, then played the dog. 


EAGLES -3.5 over Giants

The Eagles may be at their market peak, but I don’t see how New York keeps up with the run game


RAMS -1 over Packers

Bye week vs a team that so needs a bye week, injury-wise. But Green Bay often wins games like this under Matt Lafleur, so I may pass on it. 


FALCONS -1 over Jags

It opened Pick ‘em, which shows how bad the Falcons have been. But they often deliver against bad teams and the Jags happen to be a bad team. 


Last week 8-5

Season 105-60

RoI 677%

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