Spread & Circuses

 We are seeing more predictable lines now as teams begin to have an identity for the season.  The teams that were disappointing (hello, Miami!) are now seen as just bad, and surprising teams (hey, there, Arizona!) are accepted as just good. Now the challenge comes with watching lines respond to the unknowns -- the week-to-week injuries that bedevil fantasy players also make betting a challenge.  But they also present an opportunity -- the public can sometimes over-react to an injury and you can play the line in a contrarian way.  For example, the news headlines tell you that the Seahawks have lost two straight with Geno Smith starting for Russell Wilson, and the public sees those headlines and fades Seattle.  Gamblers tell you that Seattle is 2-0 ATS with Smith starting, because beating the spread is all about beating public expectations, not the other team. As we deal this week with a COVID outbreak in the Green Bay receivers' room, and key players with nagging...

 I hit my rough week last week with a 6-8 record. Fortunately I put my multiple unit bets on the Raiders and Seahawks, so my bankroll stayed solid with a 12 unit surplus.  This week there are a lot of games Vegas sees as a blowout. My pal Tony summed this dilemma up quite well once when we were looking at the horrible, Rich Kotite-coached Jets of the 90s getting 15 points against the Patriots. “Ugh,”proclaimed Tony, “I have two rules — the first is ‘Beware The Two Touchdown Spread”. When I asked what the second was, he replied “Beware the 0-11 Jets.” And he’s right. You want to avoid these games because they force you to choose between cartoonishly-huge deficits and teams so bad you wonder how they will keep up.  So many bettors pass or take the favourite out of name recognition.  But the contrarian knows that Tony’s first rule is a good one — dogs getting more than 2 TDs have covered more than 65%of the time since he spoke those words, even including the Texans gett...

As the great Canadian diva Luba sang, "illusion or reality?" is a pretty important question in love and in gambling.  Since we are looking to find times when the herd is running the wrong way, we need to decide what the right way is.  Because, while the house is most often right, sometimes their need to account for public opinion means that lines will linger behind a changed reality.  You want an example?  Late last NBA season, I rode the Minnesota Timberwolves on a 9-0 ATS string and won big.  There was method to this madness.  The Wolves were entrenched in the public's mind as a bad team.  However, late in the season they did something counterintuitive -- they tried.  Most bad teams sat their veterans and used the time to try young players and, let's face it, let them fail becaise the losses meant better draft picks.  (You will recall the Raptors used several starting lineups made up of guys who would need to show photo ID in their own kitc...

Poor Dennis Green.  The Cardinals coach wasn't wrong when he had his famous meltdown, having watched the Rex Grossman-led Bears pull out a last second win.  The mediocre Cards had their number all game but choked at the end, leading Coach to melt down.  It's frustrating when you feel you can beat a favourite, the game goes as you thought, and then right at the end something goes wrong.  At least Dennis Green left an epic meltdown to delight YouTubers and Coors Light ad watchers.  Bettors just mumble under their breath. Because there's really nothing worse then calling a game right but missing the spread.  Like last week, for a half Carolina made you feel like a genius if you believed they were for real and could hang with Dallas.  Or if you bet New England on the money line -- you were right to bet that Belichick could plan for Brady more than Brady could torch Belichick's D....but right at the end, you fell short.  That happens.  Sometimes y...

 The big game this week involves a former Patriots starting QB trying to show his former team that he's doing OK without them.  And I think Jacoby Brissett will struggle against the Colts.  There's also, apparently, a revenge game in Foxboro involving someone named Tom Brady, who in addition to being a former Montreal Expos catcher played some quarterback for New England.  He may do better, as he apparently has some big game experience. Meanwhile, an aging Ben Roethlisberger tries to show he's not the 4th best quarterback in his division at age 40.  Unlike Brady, who stays young with a diet of kale, avocados and Pedialyte, Ben always looked like a chicken wings and Colt 45 guy, so the odometer may be showing signs of age.  Russell Wilson tries to avoid starting 1-3, Sam Darnold tries to show it was all the Jets' fault, and the Bears try to find one quarterback who can play this damn game. Meanwhile, your humble scribe tries to keep the 34-14 start rolling, ...