Poor Dennis Green. The Cardinals coach wasn't wrong when he had his famous meltdown, having watched the Rex Grossman-led Bears pull out a last second win. The mediocre Cards had their number all game but choked at the end, leading Coach to melt down. It's frustrating when you feel you can beat a favourite, the game goes as you thought, and then right at the end something goes wrong. At least Dennis Green left an epic meltdown to delight YouTubers and Coors Light ad watchers. Bettors just mumble under their breath.
Because there's really nothing worse then calling a game right but missing the spread. Like last week, for a half Carolina made you feel like a genius if you believed they were for real and could hang with Dallas. Or if you bet New England on the money line -- you were right to bet that Belichick could plan for Brady more than Brady could torch Belichick's D....but right at the end, you fell short. That happens. Sometimes you call the game right but a bounce goes against you.
I went 11-5 last week and ran my season record to 45-19 with a 340% RoI, but there's been some luck. That Arizona pick over the Jags? The Jags outplayed expectations and only a late pick saved the Cards' cover. The Lions over the Niners? That wasn't a cover because the teams were more competitive than I thought -- I just got lucky when the Niners rested on a blowout and the Lions got the backdoor cover. When you're hot, those things happen, but they don't feel like wins because you got the right result for the wrong reasons.
It even happens to the house. This week, several teams have lopsided action on them and the house hasn't really moved the line. Usually that means they know what you don't, but they can't be right every time. Sometimes, they will have the game right and the number wrong, and they just have the pockets to ride it to a better day. This week will test the contrarian bettor, because there are a lot of games where the house is exposed and some don't look right. You have to trust the numbers, but decide how much you trust your eyes and instincts when you find yourself on the other side of the sharps.
Here goes for Week 5....
PREMIUM PICKS (Play multiple units)
NY GIANTS +7.5 over Dallas
Daniel Jones has started putting good performances together, and he's always been underestimated a bit in these matchups, giving good return as a road dog and a division dog. With 95% of action on Dallas, I like the G-Men to reward bettors with at least a cover
SAN FRANCISCO +5.5 over Arizona
It's a classic let down spot for the last undefeated team in the NFL after comfortably knocking off the Rams, and Kyle Shanahan teams are good on the road and after a loss. Take the points here, as the dog won outright in both these teams' games last year.
LA RAMS -1.5 over Seattle
Home teams are usually my jam on Thursdays, but McVay is so good off a loss. Plus I love the possible NFC West result where Cards beat Rams, Rams beat Seahawks, Seahawks beat Niners, Niners beat Cards. That would keep the division a mystery.
WASHINGTON +1.5 over New Orleans
Every line on the Saints has been off at least 10 points, so even the pros don't know what they'll get each week. I think the Football Team gets underestimated with Taylor Heinecke as QB, which is why he's 4-0 on the Over as a starter (PS .... bet the Over, too)
CAROLINA -3.5 over Philadelphia
This Eagles team is ice cold against the spread, and when Hurts looks good one week there's usually a low scoring game ahead. With 91% of money on the over, think about an under play here, too.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE (I may play one unit at most)
CHICAGO +5.5 over Las Vegas
The rookie QBs had a good week last week, finally, so the ones with a future may be seeing the game slow down a bit now. This is a big number for a Gruden-coached team that tends to underperform its homer-adjusted spread, so I'm looking for a backdoor cover.
CINCINNATI +3 over Green Bay
Most bets are on the Pack, but most of the money is on Cincy. That means the sharps think Joe Burrow can handle this. You want to agree with the sharps, especially with the Pack on the road in AFC games where they underperform, like when they let Jake Luton and the cadaver of Phillip Rivers cover.
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BUFFALO +2.5 over Kansas City
The Chiefs have been terrible against the spread but often rally to pull out wins. Its either a sign of boredom or a slight decline. I think Buffalo is good enough to expose a slight decline in the Chiefs' dominance, and after two close calls they'll get this one.
LIONS +8.5 over Minnesota
Another game like the Saints' game, with a flaky favourite and a heavy public lean on them. Take the underestimated dog with a spread this big.
BUCCANEERS -10.5 over Dolphins
I don't think Brady does mental letdowns, but I think he does relief at getting the New England game behind him. Also, I don't think that Dolphins offence is coming back any time soon. It stinks on ice.
WILD ASS GUESSES
TENNESSEE -4 over Jacksonville
WARNING! You shouldn't listen to me. The Titans shanked me last week in losing to the Jets. Trevor Lawrence has had two competent games in a row with increasingly-narrow losses. The public is 90% on Tennessee yet the line moved toward the Titans. Everything screams take the Jags. But I can't...I think Tennessee rebounds and Urban Meyer remains a distraction at best for his team. But I'm going with my gut here instead of reading the warning signs, so I won't blame you if you take the Jags, even on the ML.
CLEVELAND +2 over LA Chargers
I love that Browns D and I think Justin Herbert is for real. So I don't know, but if I play this I will likely stick to betting the over, which is where the sharp money has gone.
NY JETS +3.5 over Atlanta
I love the Under in a London game, and I love the hook when two bad teams play in the London game.
NEW ENGLAND -9 over Houston
Rookie QB. Against Bill Belichick. Even with the public maybe overestimating the Pats after Sunday's high profile moral victory, I can't bet on Davis Mills figuring it out on the Hoodie's watch.
PITTSBURGH +1.5 over Denver
Pittsburgh is no longer a playoff team, and their 2-8 ATS spread since their swoon last year tells you that Big Ben is kind of shot. But the question is now, are they a BAD team? And I don't think Tomlin and that D let the roof cave in to the point Drew Lock beats them.
INDIANAPOLIS +7 over Baltimore
The Ravens turn it up enough to win close against elite teams. They relax enough to keep it close against bad ones. I don't love Carson Wentz, but the Colts D competes and Baltimore has not done well as a heavy favourite this year.
LAST WEEK 11-5
SEASON 45-19 ATS
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