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WEEK 7: BEWARE THE DOUBLE DIGIT SPREAD

 I hit my rough week last week with a 6-8 record. Fortunately I put my multiple unit bets on the Raiders and Seahawks, so my bankroll stayed solid with a 12 unit surplus. 

This week there are a lot of games Vegas sees as a blowout. My pal Tony summed this dilemma up quite well once when we were looking at the horrible, Rich Kotite-coached Jets of the 90s getting 15 points against the Patriots. “Ugh,”proclaimed Tony, “I have two rules — the first is ‘Beware The Two Touchdown Spread”.

When I asked what the second was, he replied “Beware the 0-11 Jets.”

And he’s right. You want to avoid these games because they force you to choose between cartoonishly-huge deficits and teams so bad you wonder how they will keep up.  So many bettors pass or take the favourite out of name recognition.  But the contrarian knows that Tony’s first rule is a good one — dogs getting more than 2 TDs have covered more than 65%of the time since he spoke those words, even including the Texans getting blown out 40-0 this year by the 17-point-favoured Bills.  So be a contrarian and look for the bad teams who might catch a favourite looking past them, either because they have a bigger foe ahead or they lack motivation.

PREMIUM PICKS 

TITANS +4.5 over Chiefs

Two good trends here…Monday night winners cover over two-thirds of the time the next week, and the public still overvalues the Chiefs.  Grab these points.

BRONCOS +3.5 over Browns

I wouldn’t play it without the hook, but a hobbled Bridgewater, a steady-but-unspectacular Case Keenum starting for Cleveland, and two injured RBs make for a low-scoring game that should stay within a FG.

PACKERS -7.5 over Washington FT

I like that this line moved down, and I am going to grab it. Looks l8ke the public bet it down from 9.5 and the sharps then hit the Pack, and you know I love me some sharps over the public action.

TEXANS +18 over Cardinals 

The Cards are 5 days away from a prime time game with the Pack.  I think they’ll get up early but may be unmotivated to run up the score or close the back door.

LIONS +15.5 over Rams

The fact the Lions got blown out by Cindy last week is a plus — they generally have played hard for Dan Campbell and the blowout may make this spread a bit too big, especially because I think Jared Goff is more motivated by the trade than Matthew Stafford is.

MODERATE PICKS 

BUCCANEERS -13 over Bears

I know I’m breaking the rule here, but if three of the heavy favourites fail to cover, stats say one will.  And I think this is the one, because it was last year that Brady forgot what down it was late and lost to the Bears.  And if you think that’s too little to motivate a guy, let me tell you about Tom Brady.  He’s competitive.

DOLPHINS +3.5 over Falcons

The Dolphins just lost to the awful Jags and have to play right after playing in London.  So I think the hook is more help than they need because the public will over-read that against the goofy Falcons.

COLTS +4 over 49ers

That defence is coming around and this number should be under 3.

SEAHAWKS +5 over Saints

The need factor and the fact that the public underestimates Geno Smith a bit


WILD-ASS GUESSES


RAIDERS -3 over Eagles

Maybe the players knew more about Gruden than we did.


BENGALS +6.5 over Ravens

I’d consider Baltimore on a teaser or the ProLine Money Line, but this spread is too big for a decent Bengals team.


PATRIOTS -7.5 over Jets

I’m nervous because it seems too obvious just weeks after the last blowout, but I can’t make a Jets case here.

PANTHERS -3 over Giants

I don’t love Carolina as a road dog, but I also don’t love the Giants anywhere right now.  But I can’t read either team well.I’m nervous because it seems too easy after the last blowout, but I can’t make a Jets case.


Last week, 6-8. Season, 60-34

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