These things are almost never right. Let’s start with that. Season predictions often go wrong, because there’s always going to be some bias towards what we just saw. The 2020 NFL season ended with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a tear, with the Bills, Browns and Packers ascendant. So most predictions are going to start with those teams.
Except…..
Things change. They change for reasons that aren’t obvious to you and me. I don’t know why the Buccaneers started 6-5 and the Steelers started 11-0, and by the start of the playoffs one of them looked great and the other appeared completely discombobulated. I don’t know why the Jets could go from looking like historic doormats to winning two of their last three. I mean, I can guess…and some of the trends might carry over. Others may not. More often, things just change. A mediocre team can hit a statistical run during a 17-game sample. An invincible favourite can be swarmed by the injury bug.
And so predictions are often wrong. But as you will see in my next column, this is a betting site, and you have to have at least a theory of who’s overrated and who’s underrated if you’re going to place some bets. So I’m starting with a look at the season.
OVERRATED TEAMS
Every year, there are teams that the public is all over. Often a consensus narrative develops around those teams, which leads to inflated betting lines and chances to make money by swimming against the current. Here are some cases where I have some doubts about the narrative people are accepting.
1. CLEVELAND BROWNS
I know, I know, I know. It makes me sad to type that. It feels like being the grinch who roots against Ted Lasso’s plucky AFC Richmond team. Browns fans deserve some optimism, and they’re getting it thanks to a long-awaited playoff berth and a roster that looks pretty good. But I can’t help recalling that the Browns were a SOFT 11-5, one of the few winning teams with a negative point differential. They beat a lot of weak teams to get into contention, and when they had it all on the line they damn near choked, losing to the dog-ass Jets and almost losing a season finale to the Steelers’ backups (led by Mason Rudolph, in whom the Steelers have enough doubts so as to try Dwayne Haskins, who was cut by the QB-needy Washington team. Their playoff run has been turned into a coming-of-age win over Pittsburgh and a close loss to Kansas City, but in real time, I saw them beat a fading Steelers team who ended the game by snapping the ball over Ben Roethlisberger’s head and played like they wanted to go home. Then, they lost to the Chiefs in a backdoor-cover game where they never led and lost their shot when they couldn’t stop a bootleg by the immortal Chad Henné. There’s talent here, but I’m not on the Super Bowl train like others.
2. SAN FRANCISCO 49’ERS
There’s an old saying that if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have a quarterback. I understand why there’s so much exuberance here — they were 15 minutes from winning the Super Bowl and then had an injury-plagued year, so why not bet them to bounce back? But they play in a tough division, with three other teams who have the talent for deep playoff runs. They have some talent but few obvious stars at the skill positions save the awesome George Kittle. And the hype seems to be built around Trey Lance, except he isn’t starting and was taken behind two other quarterbacks because he was a bit raw..so, sure, this is the entry most likely to make me look dumb by November. I still see a lot of paths to disappointment here.
3. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Again, I get it. They have a Hall of Fame coach, they sagged last year without a quarterback, and now there’s a sense that the rookie Mac Jones can be plugged in and they’ll ride a Belichick defence back to glory. Some pundits have them beating the Bills. I certainly think this can be a playoff team, but some folks are betting the brand and not the reality. Jones is still a rookie, and slid to 15th overall for some reasons. There’s a dearth of playmakers on offence, as good as the D may be.
UNDERRATED TEAMS
1. Washington Football Team
The generically-named Washington Former Racial Epithets are seen as a team that won a weak division and may not even do that again. I disagree that defence last year was young, hungry and still improving each week when the season ended. They gave the Bucs a scare even with undrafted rookie Taylor Hienecke starting at quarterback. Their coach has a track record, and clearly enough pull to ignore back seat driving from the worst owner in sports (Post-Stirling Era). Also, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a big upgrade. Like Kurt Warner when he arrived at the Cardinals’ door, the groupthink definition of him as a rental backup is obscuring our view of what the numbers are telling us — this guy’s late career run has seen him post great numbers and get past the mistakes that often cost his teams. If he stays healthy, “Harvard Matt Stairs” has a chance to finally start a playoff game. Maybe three. That D is for real.
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS
This is the reverse of thinking the Patriots may be slightly overrated. The Fish went from looking abysmal in the first half of 2020 to closing strong, then almost making the playoffs with a great defence and a little FitzMagic last year. I know there are doubts about Tua Tagovailoa, but why does the Alabama rookie taken 15th get the benefit of the doubt but we don’t credit the Alabama QB taken higher and with an extra year under his belt? Brian Flores has this team ready to contend, and they may take another jump.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Kyler Murray faded a bit down the stretch, but that’s a problem that often gets solved with experience. In his third year, I think Murray will take another big jump forward. The NFC West is stacked and the Cards are a common pick to be 4th, but it says here that they can keep pace with any of those teams. And, if so, they can play anyone in the NFL.
Those are some of the teams I will be fading or playing this year. And, without further ado, here are my predictions which I have selflessly committed to writing so you can mock me come January.
AFC East
Bills 12-5, Dolphins 10-7, Patriots 9-8, Jets 5-12
AFC North
Ravens 11-6, Browns 10-7, Steelers 9-8, Bengals 6-11
AFC South
Titans 13-4, Colts 6-11, Jaguars 3-14, Texans 2-15
AFC West
Chiefs 14-3, Chargers 10-7, Raiders 9-8, Broncos 5-12
NFC East
Washington FT 11-6, Cowboys 10-7, Giants 7-10, Eagles 5-12
NFC North
Packers 12-5, Vikings 9-8, Bears 8-9, Lions 3-14
NFC South
Buccaneers 13-4, Saints 10-7, Falcons 7-10, Panthers 6-11
NFC West
Rams 11-6, Cardinals 11-6, Seahawks 10-7, 49’ers 8-9
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