Spread & Circuses

 PREMIUM PICKS COLTS +2.5 over Buccaneers The Colts had 4th quarter leads over Tennessee and Baltimore that they let slip away at the end.  Change those two outcomes, and Indy would be the Top AFC seed and on a 6 game win streak. They shouldn’t be getting points, even against a quality opponent.  TEXANS -2.5 over Jets The Jets often bite when they’re written off, but I do like the veteran QB over the rusty rookie here at under 3. Lay it.  WASHINGTON -1 over Seahawks This requires one to believe that two trends — Ron Riveira’s post-bye improvement and Seattle’s offensive collapse — are real. This week, I do. BILLS -5 over Saints The trend I don’t buy is Buffalo collapsing. Trevor Simian has done well enough in garbage time to keep this line under 7, and that’s where I think it’s a bargain PANTHERS -1 over Dolphins Can Newton seems to have improved the feeling in Charlotte, and I don’t think Miami’s check down passing and lack of a run game can keep up with a Panthers ...

 PREMIUM PICKS SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Cards The need factor should be enough to cover this against a backup QB. Cards will give Kyler Murray the bye week. WASHINGTON +3.5 over Panthers I like the hook.  Everyone is excited by Cam Newton’s return, but I don’t see him being a huge upgrade at this point.  LIONS +13 over Browns We gained a few points when Jared Goff was announced out, but he hasn’t played well.  The Lions have quietly paid spread bettors well, going 4-1 ATS last 5 COWBOYS +2.5 over Chiefs One week hasn’t sold me on the Chiefs giving points to a premium opponent. COLTS +7.5 over Bills That hook is too much given the trends for these teams. TEXANS +10.5 over Titans Tyrod Taylor can keep it close in what may be a let-up game for Tennessee MIDDLING PICKS PACKERS -1 over Vikings This road trip is usually a trap for good Packer teams, but it hasn’t been for Matt Lafleur, so let’s ride the Packers’ cover streak. DOLPHINS -3.5 over Jets I don’t like the hook, but I ...

 Sorry…..limited time this week.  Here goes: PREMIUM PICKS  NINERS +3.5 over Rams This is the classic contrarian pick. I think this line seems like an easy Rams cover.  So do 98% of bettors, and Vegas didn’t change the line. So….play it like they know something. Two units on SF. Also…. PATS -1.5 over Browns BUCS -9.5 over Washington LIONS +8.5 over Steelers RAIDERS +2.5 over Chiefs COLTS -10.5 over Jags MIDDLING PICKS PANTHERS +10.5 over Cards BILLS -13.5 over Jets DOLPHINS +7.5 over Ravens (make sure you get the hook!) PACKERS -3.5 over Seahawks WILDASS GUESSES Broncos +10 over Cowboys SAINTS +3.5 over Titans CHARGERS -2.5 over Vikings FALCONS +9.5 over Cowboys Last week 7-7 Season 87-49 Return: 617%

 This week’s theme is clearly absences, and generally how teams respond to distractions. A few weeks ago, we saw the Raiders exceed expectations in dealing with the sudden defenestration of Jon Gruden.  This week, the Raiders have lost not only a starting receiver, but must deal with the emotional fallout of some incredibly tragic decisions he allegedly made that led to the loss of life.  Aaron Rodgers sudden interest in home pharmacy is going to be a story for a while yet, plus they deal with Jordan Love’s unveiling this week.  And lesser controversies and distractions abound in Miami, Washington and Cleveland. How the public perceives these, and how the line moves, can create opportunity. We saw that last week, where the Packers and Cowboys both had injury troubles.  If you followed the public and jumped off those teams, you lost. If you played that the public overestimated the impact, you won.  (Full disclosure — I told you that the Pack and Raiders were...