Skip to main content

WEEK 9 ABSENCE MAKES THE LINES GROW WEIRDER

 This week’s theme is clearly absences, and generally how teams respond to distractions. A few weeks ago, we saw the Raiders exceed expectations in dealing with the sudden defenestration of Jon Gruden.  This week, the Raiders have lost not only a starting receiver, but must deal with the emotional fallout of some incredibly tragic decisions he allegedly made that led to the loss of life.  Aaron Rodgers sudden interest in home pharmacy is going to be a story for a while yet, plus they deal with Jordan Love’s unveiling this week.  And lesser controversies and distractions abound in Miami, Washington and Cleveland. How the public perceives these, and how the line moves, can create opportunity. We saw that last week, where the Packers and Cowboys both had injury troubles.  If you followed the public and jumped off those teams, you lost. If you played that the public overestimated the impact, you won.  (Full disclosure — I told you that the Pack and Raiders were being undervalued, but I whiffed on the Cowboys without Dak.  I didn’t think Minnesota would be that bad.)


Last week was a mixed bag…I went 9-6, but only 2-3 on my premium picks, so I stayed at +600 for the year. But unlike Aaron Rodgers I’m vaccinated, immunized AND ready to play this week, so let’s play….


Premium Picks

PACKERS 7.5 over Chiefs

The line moved nine points on the news about Rodgers. I haven’t seen Jordan Love play, but I did see the. Chiefs scrape by the Giants, barely, six days ago. This is an overreaction, and I will take the hook and bet that the Packers can run and play D and Love can avoid messing that up.


BILLS -14.5 over Jaguars

A big number and a bad team? It’s what these Bills do, and the Jags are the right kind of bad to drive the numbers. Play the over, too.


CHARGERS -1.5 over Eagles

Classic decency bias overvalued last week and  makes this line too small for a decent LA squad.


TEXANS +5.5 over Dolphins

The line only moved one point for the return of Tyrod Taylor.  Not to overvalue him, but he’s a smart veteran who can lead, run and avoid turnovers  And that’s too many points for the Dolphins to give him.

FALCONS +6 over Saints

Same theme,,.overreaction to last week.  The Saints are, yes, 5-2 and just manhandled the Bucs.  But the two games before that were low-scoring, close affairs against mediocre teams AND the Saints did lose their starting quarterback.  In a divisional rivalry, I’m not laying 6 on Trevor Simien  


Moderate Picks

BENGALS -2.5 over Browns

On paper, this staying under a FG looks great.  The Browns offence is sputtering and they’ve had drama this week with OBJ  I’m nervous because they can still run, the Bengals are young and prone to error like last week, and t( line didn’t move.  I’m betting that the Jets game made the public too skittish on the Bengals to do the obvious here, but maybe the sharps wants me to think that.


COLTS -10.5 over Jets

Breakout QBs don’t do as well once there’s tape on them.


TITANS +7.5 over Rams

Again, I suspect the public overreacts to the absence of a star and doesn’t note that the Titans still have weapons.  Enough, at least, to love the hook.


GIANTS +3.5 over Raiders

I think the Raiders can take upheaval.  But they’re a West Coast team travelling east for a trap game, and I’d have bet a slightly sluggish start before the headlines  


WILD ASS GUESSES


RAVENS -6 over Vikings

I hate this number but I hate the wacky Vikings more.


BRONCOS +10.5 over Cowboys

This line looks pretty tough to find value on, but if I had to bet I’d say a backdoor cover makes sense  Big number for a non-rivalry game.


CARDINALS +2.5 over Niners

The public has moved this line with news that Kyler Murray is banged up, so let’s bet against the public and bet that the Cards will find a way  


PANTHERS +3.5 over Patriots

The Pats are improving, but getting the hook at home against a rookie QB appeals.  So does the return of Christian McCaffrey.


STEELERS -6.5 over Bears

My head says it’s too big a number, but my instinct says the Steelers over perform on Monday night  


LAST WEEK 9-6, SEASON 80-42





Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

NFL 2021 — Kelly’s Dubious Predictions

 These things are almost never right. Let’s start with that.  Season predictions often go wrong, because there’s always going to be some bias towards what we just saw.  The 2020 NFL season ended with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on a tear, with the Bills, Browns and Packers ascendant.  So most predictions are going to start with those teams. Except….. Things change. They change for reasons that aren’t obvious to you and me.  I don’t know why the Buccaneers started 6-5 and the Steelers started 11-0, and by the start of the playoffs one of them looked great and the other appeared completely discombobulated. I don’t know why the Jets could go from looking like historic doormats to winning two of their last three. I mean, I can guess…and some of the trends might carry over.  Others may not.  More often, things just change.  A mediocre team can hit a statistical run during a 17-game sample.  An invincible favourite can be swarmed by the injury bug. An...
Post a Comment
Read more

WEEK 4 PICKS -- ALL REVENGE GAMES, ALL THE TIME

 The big game this week involves a former Patriots starting QB trying to show his former team that he's doing OK without them.  And I think Jacoby Brissett will struggle against the Colts.  There's also, apparently, a revenge game in Foxboro involving someone named Tom Brady, who in addition to being a former Montreal Expos catcher played some quarterback for New England.  He may do better, as he apparently has some big game experience. Meanwhile, an aging Ben Roethlisberger tries to show he's not the 4th best quarterback in his division at age 40.  Unlike Brady, who stays young with a diet of kale, avocados and Pedialyte, Ben always looked like a chicken wings and Colt 45 guy, so the odometer may be showing signs of age.  Russell Wilson tries to avoid starting 1-3, Sam Darnold tries to show it was all the Jets' fault, and the Bears try to find one quarterback who can play this damn game. Meanwhile, your humble scribe tries to keep the 34-14 start rolling, ...
Post a Comment
Read more

WEEK 4 KICKOFF, THURSDAY NIGHT PICK

 After last week’s 12-4 record, I’m basically in Bruce Cockburn territory here, wondering where the lions are. (I know they’re in Chicago, but I mean the figurative lions that can wreck your parlay). I’m at 34-14 for the year, and that feels unsustainable.  There’s not a lot of guidance from the markets on tonight’s Thursday night clash, likely because betting interest may be low. The Bengals and Jaguars are not exactly dominant franchises or big markets, although there is the appeal of seeing the last two #1 pucks go head to head. Joe Burrow looked solid in getting a win over the fading Steelers, and Trevor Lawrence made some big league throws and some bush league mistakes, scaring Arizona for a half before giving the Cards the late cover. The line moved from 7 to 7.5 for Cindy, likely driven by some public reaction to finally besting their divisional bullies from Pittsburgh. The sharps are pretty split, so we are on our own to bet…. CINCINNATI -7.5 over Jacksonville Sooner o...
Post a Comment
Read more