As the great Canadian diva Luba sang, "illusion or reality?" is a pretty important question in love and in gambling. Since we are looking to find times when the herd is running the wrong way, we need to decide what the right way is. Because, while the house is most often right, sometimes their need to account for public opinion means that lines will linger behind a changed reality. You want an example? Late last NBA season, I rode the Minnesota Timberwolves on a 9-0 ATS string and won big. There was method to this madness. The Wolves were entrenched in the public's mind as a bad team. However, late in the season they did something counterintuitive -- they tried. Most bad teams sat their veterans and used the time to try young players and, let's face it, let them fail becaise the losses meant better draft picks. (You will recall the Raptors used several starting lineups made up of guys who would need to show photo ID in their own kitchen). But the Wolves had injury problems, and played their two All-Stars (Towns and Russell) even more to see how they fit together. At a tike when bad teams played to lose with young players, the Wolves played veterans to see what they had. Over performance followed.
Just so, you need to look at trends and decide what is good and what's unsustainable. Here's my list.
REAL:
1. I think the Bills just blow people out now. They might be a dominant team that covers big spreads.
2. The Chiefs lousy ATS record is a leading indicator -- they have lost a step. The offence used to be "so good you don't need defence" to "Good".
3. Tom Brady is ageless at 44. His team's pass defence, however, is gonna remain bad
4. The Steelers aren't bad, but they are mediocre and Ben is old.
5. The Seattle D is going to be lousy all year
FAKE:
1. Some backup QB's are better by the numbers than by reputation. Geno Smith is not a backup because he sucked, he's a backup because he was a Jet. Taylor Heinecke is in the upper half of QBs.
2. The Panthers, Broncos and Bengals exceeded expectations, but with bigger sample sizes of opponents they may just be average teams that consistently beat bad teams and lose to good ones.
3. Rookie QBs get better each week, often without any external explanation. Lawrence, Fields, Lance and Wilson will mostly improve in sudden spurts.
4. San Francisco may well be about to have another one of those years..
5. The Raiders aren't necessarily going to be lost without Jon Gruden. They may even improve,
You will see some of that reflected in my picks. You can make your own list, but you see the point. When you make your bets based on playing off of cases where the public runs the wrong way, you want to decide up front which ones are the mistakes and which ones are pretty solid.
So, anyway, here we go with this week's picks:
PREMIUM PICKS -- I am going to play these with multiple units
PACKERS +4.5 over Bears
I've faded the Packers for 3 weeks, and they keep covering. So I'm done overthinking this. Week One was a fluke and Rodgers/Lafleur are 4-0 ATS against this division foe. Does it seem likely the Bears will be in first place in the division come Monday, or that the records will reflect the Pack is two games better than the Bears? Well, then....
RAMS -9 over NY Giants
What am I missing here? The Giants are bad and unimaginative on offence and hae injuries everywhere. I hate road favourites giving more than a TD, but I can't see the G-Men hanging with Matt Stafford here.
SEAHAWKS +5.5 over Steelers
Trust your eyes -- Geno Smith can run this offence. Trust your eyes-- Ben has lost a step. That doesn't mean that Seattle's D isn't pretty bad, or that the Steelers are awful. Had this stayed at even money where it opened, I'd be on the Steelers. But the public run on the Steelers has pushed the line to where I will take the extra points and bet the Hawks can keep this close.
TEXANS +10 over Colts
The Texans are not as awful as the public thinks. In fact, they are 3-2 ATS. The Colts had defensive injuries in Monday night's collapse. Yes, Houston did get blown out by the Bills. You have likely noticed that Carson Wentz is not Josh Allen, and this is a big number to spot for Carson Wentz.
WASHINGTON FT +6.5 over Chiefs
I get the appeal here -- it's a bounceback game for the Chiefs, who are not as bad as their last place 2-3 record suggests. Yes, they have Mahomes. Yes, they lost close ones to good teams in the Ravens and Chargers. But I think the problems are not an illusion. The Chiefs were a team with an average defence and an historically great offence. Now they're a team with a lousy defence and a very good offence. The public still thinks they're the first one, which is why they are 4-13 ATS and why I think the Fighting Heineckes can cover here. So does the house -- the money is huge on the Chiefs but the line isn't moving.
MODERATE PICKS -- I will lay a unit, but I'm nervous
BILLS -6 over Titans
Damn, that's a big number for what was supposed to be a clash of contenders. The Titans are likely to win a weak division, but they are hard to predict week to week. I do think Buffalo looks like past dominant champions -- like the 96 Packers or 06 Patriots, they seem to just blow people out and end the drama early. I'm going to play them like the public plays the Chiefs, as a team with infinite scoring potential and the desire to blow teams out.
LIONS +3.5 over Bengals
As Blues Traveller sang, the hook brings you back. The Bengals play close games generally, and the Lions play hard. If the line moves back to 3 or under, I'd avoid it, but at 3.5 the Bengals shouldn't be trusted on the road.
PATRIOTS +3.5 over Cowboys
Another hook, this one added to a line that opened DAL-1. Like the Chiefs' game, the public has piled on the Boys. Unlike the Chiefs' game, the house moved the line to try and balance that out. So I will accept those extra points and play the Pats.
RAVENS -2.5 over Chargers
If it moved back to BAL -3.5, I'd bet the Chargers. Monday night winners are 9-0 the next week, and as good as Justin Herbert looks, Lamar Jackson is growing as a passer before our eyes. Add the early start for a West Coast team and I will take a narrow Ravens win here.
RAIDERS +3.5 over Broncos
The public is on the Broncos, moving the line over the vital 3 point mark. In the end, there's two theories you can have. The public clearly thinks that a new coach, public drama and a road trip will swamp the Raiders. So lets try the other theory -- that the team already knew more than we did about Gruden's past comments, it affected them in last week's bed-soiling against Chicago, and for one week they can rally over the Broncos, who are the very definition of a consistently average team.
WILD-ASS GUESSES -- I'll tell you my pick, but play it at your peril because I may not.
BROWNS -3 over Cardinals
They can't win every week, and this looks like a reasonable place to take an honourable L. Plus there's late news of a COVID outbreak in the Cards' locker room. Chubb and Hunt are on the injury report, but if they play they can likely limit possessions like the Jags did against the Cards, except that they'll have NFL-calibre talent as well.
JAGUARS +3.5 over Dolphins
I don't know what England did to deserve a game that even Ted Lasso and the Diamond Dogs couldn't love, but here it is. I wouldn't trust either one to spot more than a FG, so there's your answer.
PANTHERS +1 over Vikings
Let's see.... we had bad Sam Darnold and good Kirk Cousins last week. So they'll flip back,
BUCCANEERS -7 over Eagles
Despite my best efforts to will this to 7.5, Vegas resisted. Still, Philly's best games came against weak teams, and they've been bludgeoned when they step up in weight class, as in the Dallas game two weeks ago. This is a step up in weight class.
LAST WEEK 9-7, SEASON 54-26
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