The big game this week involves a former Patriots starting QB trying to show his former team that he's doing OK without them. And I think Jacoby Brissett will struggle against the Colts. There's also, apparently, a revenge game in Foxboro involving someone named Tom Brady, who in addition to being a former Montreal Expos catcher played some quarterback for New England. He may do better, as he apparently has some big game experience.
Meanwhile, an aging Ben Roethlisberger tries to show he's not the 4th best quarterback in his division at age 40. Unlike Brady, who stays young with a diet of kale, avocados and Pedialyte, Ben always looked like a chicken wings and Colt 45 guy, so the odometer may be showing signs of age. Russell Wilson tries to avoid starting 1-3, Sam Darnold tries to show it was all the Jets' fault, and the Bears try to find one quarterback who can play this damn game.
Meanwhile, your humble scribe tries to keep the 34-14 start rolling, which may be the most audacious of all. I'm up seven units on the season and will try to not, in the words of Premier Higgs, go blowing my wad all at once.
PREMIUM PICKS -- I will play these, maybe with multiple units
SEATTLE +3 over San Francisco
I love the Seahawks here. They always play San Fran tough, the Niners are a terrible home favourite ATS, and I don't see Russ letting his team fall to 1-3. Take the points.
INDIANAPOLIS +2 over Miami
The public is leaning to the Dolphins, which means they saw the highlights of Jacoby Brissett's late TD run last week but not the clunky oassing that preceded it. The Colts shouldn't be 0-4. They won't be.
CAROLINA +4.5 over Dallas
I fade the public teams like the Packers and Cowboys. I fade teams coming off unusually large wins. I fade teams who had a good game in prime time. I can do all three? Then give me Carolina even without Run-CMC.
TENNESEE +6 over NY Jets
Someday the Jets will break out and get a win. It will likely be at home. But this is not that week, and that's a reasonable number and the public hasn't gone heavily to it.
BALTIMORE -1 over Denver
Denver is 3-0. They've played the Jets, Giants and Jaguars. The Ravens are not any of those teams, and I think this is one case where the public is right not to believe that 3-0.
Moderate Picks -- I may play a unit based on game day news, line movements, and my ever-changing mood (shout out to Paul Weller and the Style Council!)
CHICAGO -3 over Detroit
I don't love the Bears offence, and I agree that Detroit plays hard for their coach. But the public moved this line from -6 to -3 by jumping on the Lions after they scared Baltimore while the Bears sucked against the Browns. Those recent events obscure the fact that the Bears can play some D and the Lions are, um, not the Ravens. Lay it.
WASHINGTON -1.5 over Atlanta
The public is split. Me? Atlanta won last week, the Football Team did not. Reversing that is so on brand, and Taylor Heinecke is better than you think.
LA CHARGERS -3 over Las Vegas
Two teams on the rise, and the public is split and the line's staying put at the basic three-point home advantage. I just think the Chargers are a better team and I don't see Vegas running away with the AFC West, so I say they both wind up 3-1.
CLEVELAND -2 over Minnesota
The line moved to the Vikings, and then snapped back to the Browns, which means some sharp money thinks the Browns D can handle a pretty inconsistent Minnesota attack. So I guess I do,
WILD-ASS GUESSES I will try here, but I do not feel certain
NEW ENGLAND +7 over Tampa Bay
I actually bet this early at 6.5 thinking it would go up. I'm glad I did, asthe public was 91% on the Bucs. The limited line movement tells me that the book can live with it, so they know something. I don't see how they keep it close, but I'm not the book or Bill Belichick. Hold off until start time in case you can get this to 7.5, but bet on the house knowing something we don't.
NY GIANTS +7 over New Orleans
I'd love to get this to 7.5, but I still think the Saints are too flaky and the Giants have too much upside to take this number.
KANSAS CITY -7 over Philadelphia
I know the Chiefs are 2-12 against the spread, but they are 1-2 and desperation can lead to statements if you have a good team. I think they still do.
PITTSBURGH +6.5 over Green Bay
Again, I don't see it, but there's over 80% of the money on the Pack and I don't play with the house like that.
ARIZONA +6 over LA Rams
The Rams looked great in a big game, and the public responded by driving the line up, likely giving Kyler Murray a few more pints than he needs.
HOUSTON -17 over Buffalo
What the hell kind of spread is this? Davis Mills looked capable of avoiding mistakes last week and gets a long week to prepare. That may keep this to 31-17
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