We are seeing more predictable lines now as teams begin to have an identity for the season. The teams that were disappointing (hello, Miami!) are now seen as just bad, and surprising teams (hey, there, Arizona!) are accepted as just good.
Now the challenge comes with watching lines respond to the unknowns -- the week-to-week injuries that bedevil fantasy players also make betting a challenge. But they also present an opportunity -- the public can sometimes over-react to an injury and you can play the line in a contrarian way. For example, the news headlines tell you that the Seahawks have lost two straight with Geno Smith starting for Russell Wilson, and the public sees those headlines and fades Seattle. Gamblers tell you that Seattle is 2-0 ATS with Smith starting, because beating the spread is all about beating public expectations, not the other team.
As we deal this week with a COVID outbreak in the Green Bay receivers' room, and key players with nagging injuries in Chicago, Dallas, Cleveland and San Francisco, it's important to watch the lines. React ahead of the public to a player being taken out, or evaluate the alternatives quickly, and you can play with more points than you need. And that's a nice thing.
OK, the picks....
PREMIUM PICKS -- to play, maybe with multiple units
LIONS +3.5 over Eagles
Is Detroit going to go 0-17? Unlikely, so they will win one as a dog. I like them right here and that hook makes it sweeter. I put one unit on the spread and one on the money line with Dan Campbell's team.
SEAHAWKS -3.5 over Jaguars
That Seattle D has risen to the task, and they get a rookie QB at home this week. Those points are not enough even with the downgrade at QB, and the public is over-reading the results with Smith. Lay it.
BENGALS -9.5 over Jets
This line is going to 10.5, which is a different calculation, but I hit this early. In doing so, I ignored my own counsel because I'm part of the public that drove this up after last week. But there are exceptions to the contrarian strategy, and I tend to think the young Bengals get confidence from the win last week more so than over confidence. Also, the Jets stink on ice and inexplicably did not get a proven backup QB behind Zach Wilson. That's so Jet.
VIKINGS -1.5 over Cowboys
This is a different calculation -- this line moved from the 'Boys being favoured when news of Dak Prescott's status came out. This line is part way between Dak and the meltdown that would come if Cooper Rush starts, and the media chatter is that the big division cushion will let Prescott sit and rest. I think it's better than 50-50 he sits, so this will be a bargain. Grab this anywhere up to 4, because it'll hit 7 if Rush is confirmed.
GIANTS +10.5 over Chiefs
I don't trust KC with any double digit spread right now. Even against the inconsistent G-Men.
MODERATE PICKS - worth a unit if you feel good game day
NINERS -2.5 over Bears
If you can get it before it goes over 3, do it. I have reminded you in the past that under their current coach the Niners are a bad road favourite, but they aren't a winless one, and the Bears injuries on D lead me to doubt they can hold SF under 20 or score 20 themselves.
FALCONS -3 over Panthers
The trends are not good for Carolina without McCaffrey, and Atlanta has shown signs of life.
RAMS -14.5 over Texans
Davis Mills is getting worse the more film there is on him, which is normal for rookies -- he loses the one advantage he had, which was anonymity. One caveat -- if Tyrod Taylor returns, I will start taking the Texans with 2TD spreads, because he can control the ball and avoid mistakes enough to keep games close.
STEELERS +3.5 over Browns
Fully a third of games come down to one possession. That's why the public often doesn't get how big those hooks at 3.5 and 7.5 can be. Case Keenum is a decent QB. He may be better than a gimpy Baker Mayfield. But he doesn't look to win with an air war, and once the hook showed up I advise you to join the line of sharps waiting to grab it.
COLTS -2 over Titans
The public jumped on Tennessee after two quality wins. Then the sharps jumped on the Colts and the line moved back. Sharps may have noticed Carson Wentz has 4 straight games with a 100 QB rating, and the Colts have the #1 run D. Be a sharp.
WILD ASS GUESSES -- I will give you my pick, but know that I won't play it
PACKERS +6.5 over Cardinals
I suspect this line grew bigger than Aaron Rodgers should be getting, but with all the COVID uncertainty, who knows. Also, Arizona isn't dominant enough to stay undefeated long, and this is a reasonable place to slip.
BILLS -14 over Dolphins
Beware the 2TD spread, or beware the 1-6 Fish? I love to bet a divisional rival in the rematch after a blowout, because the public usually overcompensates. But I can't come up with a reason to doubt this line, with the Bills having a bye week to fume about the one that got away against the Titans. So, I won't do the post-blowout thing with my money, but I will see enough upside on Miami to stay away. I do like the Under at 48.5 though, as I see a slow start.
SAINTS +4.5 over Bucs
Another one where the late money is on the dog, and with good reason. That D can slow Brady to mortal levels of offence, and the Buc secondary is banged up. Teeing off on Chicago helped the public forget that.
BRONCOS -3 over Washington FT
What I said about Davis Mills may be starting to stick to Tyler Heinecke, and this is a tough place to play. But who knows? A backdoor cover by Washington wouldn't shock me. Stay away. Play the Under if you must.
CHARGERS -4.5 over Patriots
The line came down just enough for me to think there's some over-reaction to that 51 point outburst New England laid on the Jets. You will note that Justin Herbert is NOT Zach Wilson.
Last Week 11-2, Season 71-36
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