Ouch. Last week I took my first real trouncing, finishing 5-10 and losing some money. Sure, there were some bad breaks like the Lions' amateurish clock management allowing Chicago to kick a FG with :00 on the clock instead of preserving enough time to make them try for a spread-covering TD. But there were mostly games I just flat out read wrong, like the Steelers, Titans and Vikings losses.
There seem to be some teams now that really are settling into a groove and not just alternating good weeks and bad weeks. There are also some teams that were very good who now seem genuinely off. And that may mean being willing to turn a bandwagon around hard, recognizing that in a year when parity rules even small tweaks can give a team a new identity. Here's a sense of how I will be (mostly) playing some of the teams going forward.
PERMANENT IMPROVEMENTS (They are better and I think it's real):
WASHINGTON: Yeah, I thought they'd be better. I faded them at 2-6, but Ron Riveira often comes out of a bye strong and I think this win streak is real, insofar as they are an average team rather than a bad one.
NEW ENGLAND: Remember the 2001 season? A no-name defense gels and a young, game-managing QB keeps doing enough? This has that feel, and the analytics back it up.
GREEN BAY: In the regular season, Matt Lafleur finds a way without the overwhelming performances that inflate lines.
SANFRANCISCO: The run game and D are legit, and they even covered as a home favourite.
MIAMI -- Another team I liked early, faded after a while, and I am now buying.
PERMANENT REGRESSIONS (I think there's trouble here)
LA RAMS -- It's all just off a bit, timing-wise, and these aren't fluky losses.
CLEVELAND -- I'm so sorry, Browns fans, but Baker Mayfield's toughness doesn't put points on the board.
SEATTLE -- When Russ's cooking turns out the same as Geno Smith's, you know there's a physical or mental problem somewhere he just isn't mentioning.
CAROLINA -- Sometimes the stars align -- to kick your ass at every turn. The loss of McCaffrey for the season is telling us that.
STILL WACKY (Teams I can't read at all) -- Minnesota, Buffalo, Denver, New Orleans and Philly.
Oh, well.....on to the picks:
THURSDAY NIGHT
NEW ORLEANS +6 over Dallas The line kept climbing, and I planned to wait until kickoff and take it at its highest point. Taysom Hill gives the team something to rally about after their Thanksgiving embarrassment, and the public has gone 80% on Dallas, pushing the line a bit too high. I'm taking the points.
STRONG LEANS
CHICAGO +7.5 over ARIZONA
Oh, Kyler Murray's return is a big deal. But in rainy, miserable conditions, Chicago's style makes the hook attractive to a bettor. Cards win, but there's no need to push to cover here.
DETROIT +7 over Minnesota
Some divisional games you see coming. Pack fans knew the road trip to Minnesota had peril. And Vikes fans are nervous here -- the Lions have extra rest, the Vikes play a short week ahead. Minnesota may pull this out in a typically close game, but this might be Detroit's last real shot at a W.
PITTSBURGH +5 over Baltimore
The Ravens offence is out of synch. The public is fading the Steelers hard off their blowout loss to Cincy, and that's the overreaction I love before an AFC North slugfest.
DENVER +10 over Kansas City
I suspect the public has over-observed the Chiefs' turnaround while missing the Broncos' mini-streak. The back door will be open here.
SAN FRANCISCO -3 over Seattle
Niners are better on the road ATS and Seattle is really having trouble. SOmetimes, even a contrarian has to admit that it is what it appears to be.
MIDDLING PICKS
MIAMI -3.5 over NY Giants
I don't love the hook, but I also don't love Mike Glennon leading a dubious Giants offence. The public hasn't hit Miami too hard yet.
WASHINGTON -2.5 over Las Vegas
Darren Waller and DeSean Jackson may not play, and that may be a bit too much for an inconsistent offence in a troubled season.
INDIANAPOLIS -9.5 over Houston
This opened at 7.5, so the value is declining. But it still says here that Indy can run well enough to frce the Texans to accept their fate early.
WILD ASS GUESSES
TAMPA BAY -11 over Atlanta
Atlanta has been a coverin' fool against Brady's Bucs, but at 5-6 and on the playoff cusp I suspect they get exposed here by a team that likely wants some seperation.
CINCINNATI -3 over LA Chargers
Two flaky teams, but I think the Chargers' struggles are more deep-rooted in coaches figuring out what Justion Herbert dislikes. Lay it.
NY JETS -7.5 over Philly
I don't trust anyone here, so if forced to choose I will take points
BUFFALO -2.5 over New England
60% of money is on the Pats. But the line stays under 3, and I like the Bills to remind us who they are
LAST WEEK 5-10
SEASON 110-70
RoI 580%
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