There’ll be fat tackles tackling and short kickers kicking
And friends drinking beeeeeeer
It’s the most wonderful time….of the year!!!!
My friend Tony and I often kick off the first week of the NFL season with a round of that rather lame song parody. Face it, there’s something satisfying about settling into your preferred seat in the sports bar or rec room and surveying the choices of the first crop of early games. I love fall, and that’s part of it.
This year, there’s even more reason to be excited for us die-hards. After years of being pretty lame, Atlantic Lotto is letting us make Vegas-style, single game picks against the spread. And with that, I e undertaken a little project…to see how I can do against the house over a whole season.
I’ve started this blog to measure my success and explain my reasoning. I don’t suggest you take this as the gospel, and I certainly NEVER think you should gamble anything you can’t afford to lose. This is entertainment and, for me, an intellectual challenge. There’s a lot that goes into setting these lines, and to take on the house and come out ahead is a fun hobby if you’re a stats geek like me. This is an invitation for you to learn with me, not a guarantee I will make you rich.
Here’s what I THINK I’ve learned about sports wagers — you will never, ever outsmart the house. They have stats geniuses smarter than us, and wise guys with sources we will never have. Look how often those lines come down to a point or two and you’ll see how good they are. Plus, as John Madden once pointed out, if he doesn’t know who’s going to win, how can us people at home?
What you CAN do is be smarter than the public. The house isn’t out to beat you or me. They just want to balance the money on both sides, so whoever wins they can take the vig (that percentage they keep when they pay, say, 1.90 on the dollar for a winning bet on a 50/50 proposition). Here’s what you can take to the bank — when a line moves, the public has told the house that they aren’t believing the science of the line and the house is giving into public opinion. Also, if the public stays heavily on one side of a wager and the house lives with it, the house knows something we don’t and will live with their calculated gamble.
Now, the public has blind spots. They overvalue recent events, they love certain public teams, they overreact to developments involving high-profile players and underrate boring things like offensive lines, they can be slow to change perceptions of teams, and so on. I try to watch for cases where it seems the line is moving to cater to please these public biases and run the opposite way from the crowd. And, of course, sometimes I look at what I see in stats or on the field, but I always remember that the sharps know more than me.
If that sounds like a fun little project, I welcome you to follow my picks this year. And we are jumping in with some great opening week matches. I’ve broken these into strong picks where I will bet a unit or more, leans where I may play one unit at most if the line moves, and toss ups where I probably won’t play but will share a puck for fun.
STRONG PICKS
Dallas +9.5 over Tampa Bay
I was going to leave this alone when the line opened at 6.5, because I definitely liked the Bucs to win but feared a backdoor cover from that explosive Dallas offence. But the line kept moving to respond to the public’s love of Tampa Bay, and when it hit 9.5 I asked — the public is clearly loving the Bucs way more than the odds makers. And then you ask, who’s likely right? If the Cowboys get 3 points more than the sharps think they need, then I like the odds that they stay within 9.5. So I put one unit on Dallas.
Washington -1 over LA Chargers
As I said in my season picks, I think the Football Team is being underrated because (a) we remember how bad their division was and (b) Ryan Fitzpatrick’s image as a perennial backup has obscured a very real statistical improvement in his late 30s. Home teams usually get 3 points, so this line assumes the Chargers are the better team. The Washington defence is young and still improving, they have skill players on the upswing, and FitzMagic is a big upgrade over Alex Smith, who went 5-1 as a starter while bravely playing on one leg. I am on Washington.
Houston +3.5 over Jacksonville
Make no mistake, the Texans will be bad. They were bad last year with DeShaun Watson, and he is unavailable due to some, er, legal issues. But Tyrod Taylor is a solid vet who can avoid mistakes. Here we are getting points to bet against the Jags, who were the worst team in the NFL last year, have lost 15 in a row, are ON THE ROAD, have a rookie QB and a rookie head coach who follows a lot of high-profile college coaches who did not transition well (Steve Spurrier, anyone? Nick Saban with Miami? Chip Kelly?). Once the hook got added to get the line to 3.5, I was forced to say the words “I’m betting on the Houston Texans”. I also like the over, because while those offences may stink, people forget how badly these defences stink even more.
Green Bay -3.5 over New Orleans
This game got moved to a neutral site in Jacksonville, which likely means a pro-Pack crowd for the team with a big national following. I grabbed this before the line moved, because while I think Jameis Winston will have good moments as a Saint, I think Aaron Rodgers (playing for his next gig and very motivated) should get more than this line at a neutral site.
Baltimore -4 over Las Vegas
I know, it’s a home opener and Vegas’s first chance to fill the stadium and support its new team. And this line has moved because the Ravens keep losing running backs to injuries and spooked the public. But who can name the Ravens’ starting RB last year? (I know, it’s Mark Ingram, but still….). They still have Lamar Jackson, a potent offence, and I haven’t seen any sign that Jon Gruden has a plan for this defence. The Ravens can move the ball, take the crowd out of the game, and cover this spread that the public has bet down.
LA Rams -7.5 over Chicago
Andy Dalton is starting this game to spare coveted rookie Justin Fields from having to have Aaron Donald and that Rams D chaperone his coming out party. I don’t see the Bears breaking 20 points, and I don’t see Matthew Stafford scoring fewer than 28 in the excitement of having a real contender to pilot. Lay the points.
Kansas City -5.5 over Cleveland
Home teams may get a boost from rowdy post-pandemic crowds, and KC usually overperforms at home. As I detailed in my preview column, I think people love the Browns underdog story so much they’ve forgotten that (a) they backed into the playoffs, losing to the Jets and barely beating the Steelers’ backups and (b) the playoff game between these teams wasn’t that close, and the final score was a backdoor late Browns TD scored against a team that had Mahomes on the bench. Most models think the line should be higher, and I’m laying the points.
MODERATE PICKS
Miami +3.5 over New England
Everyone is pumped for the Hoodie to mould Mac Jones into a winner, and there are doubts about Tua. But why should the second year Alabama grad be doubted but we presume the rookie Alabama grad will be great? The public may be too quick to believe in the Patriots and underestimating how much Miami has improved. These have two great defences and once Miami got the hook, I’m betting this to stay within a field goal in a low scoring affair.
Tennessee +3 over Arizona
I think both QBs will play well, and I’m going to put a unit on the over. In the end, I think homefield will get the Titans a win, likely by being the last team to score. It’s a lean because it feels like a 3 or 4 point win, but if the push can save me I’m willing to put a unit on the Titans.
Detroit +8.5 over San Francisco
I really can’t get a read on this, but know that road favourites of over 7 points fail to cover a bit more than half the time. And this line has moved from opening at 7, so the public is really discounting the Lions. I think they’ll play hard and I’m willing to risk one unit on a backdoor cover. I may hedge by putting a unit on the Niners on the outdated Pro-Line money line, which lets you play them to win by more than 3. There’s a decent chance you could hit both bets.
Seattle -3 over Indianapolis
The public fades west coast teams who travel east, but Pete Carroll must know something — his Seahawks teams win over two-thirds of the time on these road trips. I would be less willing to bet them if the spread grew, but this is small enough that I like Russell Wilson to outduel Carson Wentz, who hasn’t had much time to prepare.
Carolina -4 over NY Jets
I think Sam Darnold will do well with a new start away from the dysfunctional Jets teams he started with, and he has some skill players around him including human utility knife Christian McCaffrey. The public has moved this line from 5.5 to 4, so it meets my contrarian criteria, too. The Panthers are dull, but they have more pieces than the Jets.
LEANS
Minnesota -3 over Cincinnati
Mike Zimmer can’t have two years of crappy defence, can he? I think the Bengals will have good days with the pieces around Joe Burrow, and this one will stay close, but the line looks about right and I will be passing.
Pittsburgh +6.5 over Buffalo
This is another one where the old, weird money line may work, and I might even parlay a Bills-Niners unit on the Pro-Line money line. I think the Bills win and might get the blowout if the Steelers look like they did at the end of 2020. But Mike Tomlin always finds a way to coach up his defence, and this is a big number to lay with confidence.
Atlanta -3.5 over Philadelphia
I can’t read either team. I know Atlanta lost an unusual number of close games last year and should return to the mean, but I also think the Philly O-Line had a lot of injuries last year and might give Jalen Hurts a boost. The hook doesn’t help. I think Atlanta wins this, but I’m not sure enough to bet.
NY Giants +3 over Denver
Two more teams I can’t read. Daniel Jones needs to show improvement this year, but they lost a lot of practice time. Teddy Bridgewater can play mistake-free football, but can he deliver as a road dog? If forced, I’d default to the home dog here on a post-pandemic home opener, but not with actual money. I do like the Under a lot, though.
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