BEST BETS — I will play at least one unit here and maybe more.
MIAMI +3.5 over Las Vegas
Blowouts are almost always an outlier. In reality, even the lowliest team has elite athletes and the league is structured to entertain, which means competitive games. Teams coming off 3TD losses cover the spread the next week over 60% of the time because the public reacts to what they just saw. The public clearly reacted to the Dolphins losing 35-0 and having to start backup Jacoby Brissett in this one. But Brissett is a solid vet and may we’ll be an upgrade over starter Tua Tagivailoa, who is the starter based on potential more than actual advantage. As long as you can get the hook, run against the current on this line, which is three points higher on the Fins side than where it opened.
CHICAGO +7.5 over Cleveland
An injured Jarvis Landry, a rusty Odell Beckham and a hook at 7.5. That’s enough to give me enough faith in Bears’ rookie Justin Fields, who gets his first NFL start. He’s got enough discipline and speed to allow a backdoor cover, at least, at this number.
DETROIT +9 over Baltimore
It felt weird to even type that. But the Lions have played hard for new coach Dan Campbell and get a home opener here against a Ravens team in a classic trap game position….off a big win over KC and with Denver ahead.. I like the Lions at this price, which is 2 points higher than it opened, to get a cover. The Ravens will be happy to get the win and move on.
ARIZONA -7.5 over Jacksonville
I’m breaking my own rule here. Just as Thursday’s Carolina pick made me nervous because I was uncharacteristically siding with the public, here I’m joining 83% of bettors on the Cards. I just don’t see how a team that got scorched by Teddy Bridgewater and Tyrod Taylor hangs with the video game-like Cards’ offence, and how rookie QB Trevor Lawrence doesn’t make a couple of mistakes even if Kyler Murray gives a turnover or two up. Remember my hubris if this is the week Lawrence starts to figure it out, which he surely will, but I think Arizona cruises. ProLine is only offering 2.40 if you take the Cards -14.5 on a prop, so it seems like a cheap buy of a touchdown to just bet the spread at 1.90.
NY JETS +10.5 over Denver
Oh, Lordy, is he gonna bet the Jets AGAIN?!?! I should have learned last week when they couldn’t cover 6 against the Patriots. But Zach Wilson was a turnover-dispensing ATM against the Pats, and the Jets D was still solid enough to keep the score down to 23 points. Teddy Bridgewateris a capable pro, but he’s not a guy who delivers aerial blowouts. If Wilson is chastened into better ball control, they can keep the Broncos within 10….hell, the Jags did that.
LA CHARGERS +7 over Kansas City
Shhhh….the Chiefs have only covered 2 of their last 13. The public hasn’t noticed. Some of us have been cashing, so don’t tell them.
MODERATE PICKS — I may try a unit if I feel confident
MINNESOTA +1.5 over Seattle
The Vikes present as an 0-2 team, but they could easily be 2-0. Coming home and desperate, I think they can break Russell Wilson’s 7 game win streak against them.
TENNESSEE -5 over Indianapolis
The Titans woke up last week and I think they can carry that momentum against a Colts team forced to start Jacob Eason at QB. Lay it.
SAN FRANCISCO -3.5 over Green Bay
The Niners D remains solid. And something looks off still with the Packers. In the weak NFC North they just have to figure it out by November. I don’t think they’ll figure it out here, and the house hasn’t moved that hook even with the public leaning to the Pack.
ATLANTA +3 over NY Giants
Atlanta can’t be as bad as they’ve looked, and the Giants are a public team off a good performance. But then, Washington accounts for 5 of Daniel Jones’ 9 pro wins, so there may be a public overreaction. I will take the points
CINCINNATI +3.5 over Pittsburgh
Division battle with a hook, and a banged-up Steelers team, overcomes my fear of that bad Bengals’ O Line. I love NFC North games with hooks.
TOSSUPS — I will make a guess, but won’t play money
BUFFALO -8.5 over Washington
It’s just a good line, for the house I don’t know if Josh Allen or the Washington D is more due for a breakout, but if I have to choose, I’d say a defence that gave up 27 points to Daniel Jones isn’t going to like Josh Allen.
NEW ENGLAND -3 over New Orleans
I don’t know what the Saints are. I know what the Patriots are — a solid, game manager QB with a great D and a great coach At the standard 3 point home edge, I will take the known quantity.
PHILADELPHIA +3.5 over Dallas
Dak Prescott should be better than Jalen Hurts, but I don’t like ignoring the hook in a division rivalry. The Eagles seem to have fixed that O Line and I will say it stays close.
LA RAMS +1.5 over Tampa Bay
The house made the Rams a slight favourite. The public bet the Bucs into that slot. When in doubt, trust the house. The Bucs aren’t going 16-0, and a D that can pressure Tom Brady is a good place to find that L.
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