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THURSDAY NIGHT PREVIEW, WEEK 3

 


So far, so good….I went 12-4 with my picks against the spread last week, so I’m 22-10 on the year. That includes a nice 4-2 on my premium picks. I hurt myself by betting two units on the Cards, so when they couldn’t punch it in on 3rd down I lost that cover. Happily, I bet Dallas on the Money Line and they came in.  That, along with my suggestion to bet the old-school Pro-Line tie on Thursday’s WFT-NYG match at 3.20 gave me a nice week.  I’m up three units on the season, so using a $100 standard bet I’m up $300.  Two end zone incompletions by KC in week 1 and AZ in week 2 were all that kept me from a monster $900 advantage, but that’s why they call it gambling. 

That bit of accountability out of the way, let’s look at tonight’s early game.  It features the Carolina Panthers against a banged-up Houston Texans team, which in the words of the late, great Norm MacDonald could be given the same title he proposed for Carrot Top’s one feature film — “Box Office Poison”. 


CAROLINA -8 over Houston

Oh, this line scares me. If you bet early and got the line at CAR -4.5, good for you. But if you’re betting tonight, you’re giving 8 points to join the 70% of the public who are on the surprising 2-0 Panthers. It scares me because Carolina snuffed out the Saints last week, which looked even better than it was because the Saints were overestimated by the public after demolishing the Packers, or possibly residents of a seniors’ care facility who stole the uniforms and claimed to be the Packers. It scares me because I’ve made money off Houston, who is 2-0 ATS because the public thinks they’re bad, and they aren’t ….they’re a mediocre group of veterans who can play safe. The franchise has no direction, but the players aren’t awful.   And I get nervous when I’m following the public, because I make money betting that the public knows less than the House.


BUT….the Texans are starting a rookie, Davis Mills, against Carolina with steady vet Tyrod Taylor banged up.  Reports even have Brett Huntley taking snaps with the first unit due to some doubts about Mills, who didn’t look great against Cleveland. The short-week Thursday games often accentuate weaknesses, and a rookie coach prepping a rookie QB on the road qualifies as something that a 5 day prep week might exacerbate.  Plus, I’m going to notice something I failed to notice last week.  While I scored betting against the public when they were heavily behind the Rams and Chiefs, I looked pretty bad taking the Jets over the Patriots.  The difference?  The house was content to leave the line where it was for the Colts and Ravens, happy to leave a minority backing those dogs.  They moved the line a LOT to try to get action on the Jets, and that was the tell i missed.  Boosting this line all the way to 8 is attempting (and by reports, succeeding) to move some action back to the Texans.  That tells me the House isn’t as sanguine about all that Carolina action, so I feel a bit safer joining the masses on this one and making the obvious pick.


Lay it with my blessing….take the Panthers to smother the Texans and lay the 8.  I also like the Under at 43 because I really don’t see a lot of points on a short week.



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